Our new report on the ‘Cliff Edge’ of the energy transition

You can read the full Report here.

The Jobs Foundation’s first report on the connection between energy and job creation/retention, Jobs and Energy: The effect of high energy costs on the UK jobs market, was published in June 2025. We are now happy to be publishing the next tranche of our research on the energy sector, Cliff Edge: Jobs in Aberdeen, the epicentre of the UK’s energy transition. This latest report looks at both the effect of government policy on the energy sector, as well as the ramifications that has had on jobs and on communities – with the community in this case being the city of Aberdeen. It stands on a cliff edge, with the ability to move back to a safe economic space crumbling under that community’s feet.

Cliff Edge looks at three questions related to the interplay between the energy market and our labour market:

• Firstly, what effect is current government policy having on jobs in the energy sector, across the UK, in Scotland and particularly in Aberdeen?
• Secondly, what effect is that having on a range of other important societal factors, such as social cohesion in a city like Aberdeen which is so reliant on energy sector jobs?
• Finally, what changes could be made to government policy to improve the situation?

The report comes to four major conclusions around how to fix UK energy policy

1. New licences for oil drilling and exploration must be granted in Scotland

Put plainly, the cancelling of any new licences for North Sea drilling or exploration in the UK has been a disaster for Scotland and, more specifically, Aberdeen. The justification of this policy from the current Government is that “there is no choice” because oil and gas in the North Sea has dwindled in supply. Yet Norway discovered a whole new, large oil field off its coastline in the summer of 2025. There is no way to know if there is more oil and gas off the waters around Aberdeen if no one is looking for it any longer.

2. There needs to be a much more thought-out plan at both Holyrood and Westminster level for the transition to greener energy

There is a huge amount of talk about how oil and gas is finished in the UK and that the move to renewables must inevitably be sped up if we want to regain any form of energy independence as a country. And yet there is surprisingly little in the way of a concrete plan for the transition, particularly when one considers that the Government has taken the drastic step of ceasing all new exploration for North Sea oil.

3. The EPL should be ended as soon as possible, or at the very least end in 2028 as originally planned, not extended to 2030 or beyond

The Energy Profits Levy (EPL), also known as the windfall tax, arguably made some sense in 2022, after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The profits of energy companies soared as a direct result of Russian energy products disappearing from international markets. Yet those windfall profits are now gone, and in fact, we are facing an energy crisis in the UK instead. What we need to do now is stimulate the British energy sector – bring in direct foreign investment, make sure young people are going into the sector by creating jobs in it, ensuring that more of our energy supply is domestically sourced. Ending the EPL is a great step in that direction.

4. Focus needs to be put on the energy sector in Aberdeen specifically

Energy sector jobs will not stay in Aberdeen just because it would be rather nice if they did so. Without a clear plan for how the energy sector in Aberdeen will benefit from transition directly, the fear is that the jobs leave Aberdeen – and most likely, the UK altogether.

The United Kingdom faces a fast-approaching cliff edge on energy policy. Unless something changes soon, it could be the end of any chance of regaining energy independence or retaining thousands of jobs across the country – but especially in places like Aberdeen, where the energy sector is so central to the local economy.

You can read the full Report here.